Significant Progress Made in New Discovery Zone of Mt Oxide LME Copper Fluctuates and Closes Lower Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Meeting Minutes]

Wednesday, November 19, 2025
Futures: LME copper opened at $10,700.5/mt overnight. After a brief consolidation at the beginning of the session, it fluctuated downward to test a low of $10,667/mt. Subsequently, the price center gradually moved higher to test a high of $10,766/mt, before fluctuating downward again to finally close at $10,698/mt, a decrease of 0.64%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots and open interest reached 320,000 lots. The most-traded SHFE copper contract 2601 opened at 85,540 yuan/mt overnight. It tested a low of 85,510 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, after which the price center gradually moved higher to test a high of 86,210 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated downward to finally close at 85,930 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.01%. Trading volume reached 37,000 lots and open interest reached 177,000 lots.
[SMM Copper Morning Conference Summary] News:
(1) On November 18, True North Copper made significant progress in the new Aquila discovery area of its Mt Oxide project in northern Queensland. The latest phase two drilling results revealed a continuous copper-cobalt-silver mineralization system. Among these, hole MOX255 yielded the strongest mineralization to date, including 59m @ 1.77% Cu, 0.04% Co, 5.2 g/t Ag, within which was a high-grade section of 7m @ 7.90% Cu, 0.02% Co, 13.7 g/t Ag. These results not only extend the known strike of the Aquila mineralization zone approximately 200 meters northward, bringing the total length to over 700 meters, but also confirm a sizable copper-cobalt-silver mineralization system that remains open in all directions. The company believes there is still potential for further discovery of high-grade sections within this trend.
Spot:
(1) Shanghai: On November 18, SMM's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month 2512 contract were quoted from parity to a premium of 140 yuan/mt, with the average price quoted at a premium of 70 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The SMM #1 copper cathode price ranged from 85,830 to 86,180 yuan/mt. In the morning session, SHFE copper fell continuously from 86,100 yuan/mt, dropping to around 85,850 yuan/mt by 11 a.m. The inter-month spread fluctuated slightly between Contango 10 and Back 10 yuan/degree, and the import loss for the front-month SHFE copper contract narrowed to within 600 yuan/mt. Looking ahead to today, copper prices are expected to continue benefiting downstream procurement below 86,000 yuan/mt, and Shanghai spot copper is expected to maintain small premium trades.
(2) Guangdong: On November 18, Guangdong's #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract ranged from a discount of 40 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt, with the average premium at 5 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 110-70 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 90 yuan/mt, down 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price for Guangdong's #1 copper cathode was 85,945 yuan/mt, down 465 yuan/mt from the previous day, and the average price for SX-EW copper was 85,850 yuan/mt, down 470 yuan/mt from the previous day. Overall, three consecutive days of price declines boosted downstream restocking enthusiasm, leading to improved spot trade activity.
(3) Imported copper: On November 18, warrant prices were $26-38/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; B/L prices were $41-53/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day; EQ copper (CIF B/L) was -$6/mt to $4/mt, QP December, with the average price flat from the previous trading day. Quotations referred to cargoes arriving in mid-to-late November and early December.
(4) Secondary copper: At 11:30 on November 18, the futures closing price was 85,850 yuan/mt, down 720 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average spot premium/discount was 70 yuan/mt, down 35 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Today, the price of recycled copper raw materials decreased by 200 yuan/mt MoM. The price of bare bright copper in Guangdong was 78,100-78,300 yuan/mt, down 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 2,729 yuan/mt, down 542 yuan/mt MoM. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 1,230 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, due to sluggish sales of secondary copper rod and limited short-term pullback in copper prices, copper rod enterprises showed low sentiment for restocking raw materials. Many traders of recycled copper raw materials indicated that the sales cycle for recycled copper raw materials has indeed lengthened recently. Additionally, as suppliers are bearish on copper prices, many yards intend to reduce their own inventory to avoid losses from price declines.
(5) Inventory: On November 17, LME copper cathode inventories increased by 4,450 mt to 140,500 mt; on November 17, SHFE warrant inventories increased by 7,135 mt to 56,965 mt.
Prices: On the macro front, Trump hinted that he had identified a candidate for chairman and complained about obstacles to firing Powell, while Barkin supported Powell's cautious stance, emphasizing that a December interest rate cut is not certain. Regarding economic data, the ADP report showed continued declines in private sector employment, and most initial jobless claims data were revised upward, indicating a cooling labour market. Additionally, the US government planned to release key data delayed during the shutdown on Thursday. On the fundamentals, the supply side showed structural divergence, with tight supply of high-quality copper and mainstream brands, while standard-quality copper supply was relatively ample, and SX-EW copper circulation remained sluggish. Demand side improved after copper prices pulled back, with downstream purchase willingness rebounding. Overall, bullish and bearish factors are balancing each other, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound today.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research advice. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]